Fast answer
Crypto signal Kelly criterion checks depend on honest win probability and win/loss inputs.
Before accepting a Kelly sizing claim, record the sample period, trade count, win probability, average win, average loss, excluded trades, open losses, fees, slippage, leverage, and whether fractional Kelly or a risk cap is used.
If the provider uses Kelly language without complete trade records, stable input assumptions, cost treatment, and drawdown limits, treat the sizing claim as unproven.
Formula checks
What to inspect in crypto signal Kelly criterion claims.
Win probability
The win rate input should come from a complete period, not a cherry-picked set of winning examples.
Win/loss ratio
Average win and average loss must include costs, slippage, open losses, and stopped trades.
Fractional sizing
Many practical uses reduce Kelly output because full-size recommendations can be aggressive.
Changing edge
Crypto market conditions can change quickly, so old inputs may not describe current signal quality.
Source context
Kelly sizing can be useful, but bad inputs make it dangerous.
Investopedia explains that Kelly uses win probability and win/loss ratio to estimate allocation size and warns that the method assumes historical performance continues. Its position-sizing guide also lists Kelly as one method among several. For crypto signals, Kelly claims need complete source records and conservative risk limits.
Review standard
A reviewable Kelly claim shows inputs, exclusions, and risk caps.
For CSR evidence review, crypto signal Kelly criterion claims should include original alerts, full sample boundaries, win and loss definitions, average win, average loss, costs, open-call treatment, formula output, fractional adjustment, and final trade records.