Fast answer
Crypto signal expectancy needs average win, average loss, and probability context.
Before trusting a crypto signal expectancy claim, identify the full period, trade count, probability of a winning call, probability of a losing call, average winning amount, average losing amount, fees, slippage, breakeven treatment, open signals, and source records.
If expectancy is shown without the counted trade list, win/loss definitions, average win, average loss, costs, and open-trade rules, it is not reviewable evidence.
Expectancy checks
What to inspect in crypto signal expectancy claims.
Counting rules
Wins, losses, breakevens, skipped trades, partial exits, and open calls need fixed definitions before expectancy is calculated.
Average win/loss
A high hit rate can still fail when average losses are larger than average wins. Expectancy must show both sides.
Costs and fill realism
Fees, spreads, slippage, funding, and delayed alerts should be included or clearly excluded from the calculation.
Sample stability
Expectancy should be reviewed across enough trades and market regimes to avoid one cherry-picked period.
Source context
Expectancy connects probability with average outcome.
Investopedia explains average profitability per trade as a bigger-picture metric that combines win probability, loss probability, average win, and average loss. For crypto signal reviews, that structure helps separate evidence from simple win-rate claims.
Review standard
A reviewable expectancy claim preserves the full calculation inputs.
For CSR evidence review, crypto signal expectancy should be backed by the original call list, fixed win/loss rules, average win, average loss, probability of wins and losses, fee and slippage assumptions, open-signal labels, and any missing-data notes.