# Crypto Signal Risk-Reward and Trade Expectancy Calculator

Canonical: https://cryptosignalsreview.com/crypto-signal-risk-reward/
Research date: 2026-07-13
Repository source commit: 46c66886f619f3a7f1ebe2219ff875ffce80eddf
Summary JSON: https://cryptosignalsreview.com/crypto-signal-risk-reward/summary.json
Expectancy scenario CSV: https://cryptosignalsreview.com/crypto-signal-risk-reward/scenarios.csv
Break-even grid CSV: https://cryptosignalsreview.com/crypto-signal-risk-reward/breakeven-grid.csv
Data figure: https://cryptosignalsreview.com/crypto-signal-risk-reward/expectancy-grid.svg
Sitemap: https://cryptosignalsreview.com/crypto-signal-risk-reward-sitemap.xml

## Direct answer

With the default inputs of 55% wins, 1.2R average wins, 1R average losses, 0.04R execution drag, and 0.06R subscription drag, gross expectancy is +0.210R, net modeled expectancy is +0.110R, and the cost-adjusted break-even win rate is 50.00%.

## Formulas

- Gross expectancy per completed signal: Egross = p * W - (1 - p) * L. Unit: R per completed signal.
- Total modeled drag per completed signal: C = Ce + Cs. Unit: R per completed signal.
- Net modeled expectancy per completed signal: Enet = p * W - (1 - p) * L - Ce - Cs. Unit: R per completed signal.
- Cost-free break-even win rate: p0 = L / (W + L). Unit: probability.
- Cost-adjusted break-even win rate: pC = (L + C) / (W + L). Unit: probability.
- Minimum average winning R for net zero at the entered win rate: Wmin = ((1 - p) * L + C) / p. Unit: R.
- Modeled net total across 100 completed outcomes: E100 = 100 * Enet. Unit: R per 100 completed outcomes.
- Average win-to-loss payoff ratio: payoffRatio = W / L. Unit: ratio.

## Record assumptions

- Every issued signal in the selected period is reconstructed once before a closed binary win-loss cohort is defined under one predeclared chronology and outcome rule.
- Open, cancelled, expired, partial, edited, breakeven, neutral, and otherwise unresolved outcomes are counted and reported separately rather than silently removed or relabeled.
- The entered win rate and average wins and losses describe only the disclosed closed binary cohort; when neutral or unresolved outcomes exist, the result is conditional and is not overall per-issued-signal expectancy.
- Average wins and losses are calculated in the same R unit before any cost that will be entered separately as execution or subscription drag.
- A cost already embedded in the average winning or losing outcomes is set to zero in the matching drag field so the same cost is never subtracted twice.
- Execution drag and subscription allocation are measured over the same eligible denominator.
- The entered win rate is an assumption or historical summary, not a proven future probability.
- Arithmetic expectation does not describe the order, dispersion, dependence, or tail behavior of outcomes.

## Boundary

This calculator performs expected-value arithmetic on user-supplied binary outcome assumptions. It does not verify the input record, estimate a provider's true win rate, prove outcomes are independent or stable, include omitted or open calls, model outcome order, predict drawdown or losing streaks, size a position, model leverage or liquidation, establish profitability, rank a provider, or recommend a trade or subscription.

Indexing, ranking, first-page visibility, and AI citation are measured outcomes, not promises made by this file.