{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "datasetId": "csr-crypto-signal-win-rate-confidence-calculator-2026-07-13",
  "title": "Crypto Signal Win Rate Confidence Calculator",
  "description": "Enter wins and losses to calculate a Wilson confidence interval, compare a claimed crypto signal win rate with a threshold, and inspect sample-size uncertainty.",
  "canonicalUrl": "https://cryptosignalsreview.com/crypto-signal-win-rate-confidence-calculator/",
  "researchDate": "2026-07-13",
  "datePublished": "2026-07-13",
  "dateModified": "2026-07-13",
  "sourceCommit": "536e4018790fc24fcb1cbddd262df94e9b7ca981",
  "source": {
    "researchPath": "data/research/crypto-signal-win-rate-confidence-calculator-20260713.json",
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    "immutableResearchUrl": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/TheCryptoSimon/CryptoSignalsReview/536e4018790fc24fcb1cbddd262df94e9b7ca981/data/research/crypto-signal-win-rate-confidence-calculator-20260713.json",
    "firstPartyContextPath": "website/crypto-signal-win-rate-accuracy-claims-audit/summary.json",
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  },
  "method": {
    "interval": "Two-sided Wilson score interval for a binomial proportion.",
    "planning": "Smallest even completed-outcome count whose Wilson interval at a 50 percent observed proportion has a half-width no greater than the selected target. This is a conservative interval-width planning count, not a power calculation or a universal trading minimum.",
    "classificationRule": "Only outcomes that were eligible under a rule fixed before the result and can be classified consistently as win or loss belong in the binary denominator. Open, canceled, partial, edited, breakeven, duplicate, and omitted calls require an explicit separate rule rather than silent exclusion.",
    "confidenceZ": {
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      "95": 1.959963984540054,
      "99": 2.5758293035489004
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  },
  "searchDemand": {
    "property": "sc-domain:cryptosignalsreview.com",
    "searchType": "Web",
    "dateRange": "2026-05-22 through 2026-07-09",
    "sourceDocument": "docs/website/google-search-console-first-page-keyword-baseline-20260711.md",
    "supportingPage": "https://cryptosignalsreview.com/how-to-evaluate-the-accuracy-and-performance-of-a-crypto-signal-provider/",
    "supportingPageImpressions": 128,
    "supportingPageAveragePosition": 11.6,
    "selectionBoundary": "The measured row is page-level evidence for the broader accuracy and performance cluster. It is not exact-query demand for this calculator, general market volume, a ranking forecast, or proof that a separate canonical will be indexed. The calculator has a distinct job: quantify binomial interval width and sample-size sensitivity rather than repeat the evaluation explainer or the provider-claims cohort audit."
  },
  "firstPartyContext": {
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    "sourceCanonical": "https://cryptosignalsreview.com/crypto-signal-win-rate-accuracy-claims-audit/",
    "expectedProviders": 16,
    "expectedCompleteReproducedRecords": 0,
    "boundary": "The frozen 16-provider audit supplies context for why denominators matter. It is not used as a probability sample of the market and no provider claim is entered into the calculator automatically."
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    "planningRows": 15,
    "scenarioSampleSizes": 8,
    "scenarioObservedRates": 6,
    "confidenceLevels": 3,
    "providerScores": 0,
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      "id": "payoff-and-drawdown",
      "label": "Keep payoff and drawdown separate",
      "detail": "Win rate alone omits average gain, average loss, loss streaks, drawdown, exposure, leverage, and account survival."
    }
  ],
  "officialSources": [
    {
      "id": "nist-wilson",
      "publisher": "NIST/SEMATECH",
      "title": "7.2.4.1. Confidence intervals",
      "url": "https://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/prc/section2/prc241.htm",
      "accessedAt": "2026-07-13",
      "use": "Defines confidence intervals for proportions and documents the Wilson method used by the calculator.",
      "boundary": "The NIST example concerns proportions generally; it does not validate crypto signals or the quality of any trade record."
    },
    {
      "id": "nist-sample-size",
      "publisher": "NIST/SEMATECH",
      "title": "7.2.4.2. Sample sizes required",
      "url": "https://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/prc/section2/prc242.htm",
      "accessedAt": "2026-07-13",
      "use": "Provides official context that proportion sample-size planning depends on the question, deviation, significance, and power assumptions.",
      "boundary": "The page's calculator uses a separate, explicitly labeled Wilson interval-width planning count, not the NIST hypothesis-test power formula."
    },
    {
      "id": "cftc-trading-systems",
      "publisher": "U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission",
      "title": "Commodity Trading Systems Sold on the Internet",
      "url": "https://www.cftc.gov/LearnAndProtect/AdvisoriesAndArticles/fraudadv_tradingsystem.html",
      "accessedAt": "2026-07-13",
      "use": "Provides official context on hypothetical trading results, omitted costs, actual market conditions, and consecutive losses.",
      "boundary": "The advisory is general investor-protection context and does not evaluate any provider in the first-party audit."
    }
  ],
  "decisionBoundary": "This calculator describes uncertainty around a binary win-loss proportion under stated assumptions. It does not verify the underlying trade record, prove independence, measure payoff size, include open or omitted calls, model fees or slippage, establish profitability, predict future performance, rank a provider, or recommend a trade or subscription.",
  "citationGuidance": {
    "preferredCitation": "CryptoSignalsReview Evidence Desk (2026), Crypto Signal Win Rate Confidence Calculator, research date 2026-07-13.",
    "reuseBoundary": "Derived interval and planning rows may be reused with the canonical URL, confidence level, counts, method, research date, and decision boundary intact. Do not relabel a confidence interval as verified accuracy, profitability, safety, future performance, or provider quality."
  }
}